US Election Predictions

There are only 31 hours left before polls open for the US elections. Based on polling data  {source} and a few (barely) educated guesses {source} here’s how I think it’s going to go down …

The White House

Winner: Democrats (Obama).

Results: Democrats 290/ Republicans 248. A much closer race than 2008’s result of 365 / 173.

Closest races:

State   Winner
Florida   Republican
Virginia   Republican
Colorado   Democrats
New Hampshire   Democrats
Michigan   Democrats

The Senate

Majority of Seats: Democrats 

Results: Democrats 53 seats / Republicans 47. Both parties hold onto exactly the same number of seats as last election.

Closest races:

State Winner
Nevada Republican
Montana Republican
Virginia Democrats
Indiana Democrats
Wisconsin Democrats

House of Representatives

Majority of Seats: Republican

Results: Democrats 187 seats / Republicans 248. That means the Democrats lose a total of 7 seats to the Republicans (current house is 194 / 241).

Closest races:

State Winner
Arizona (1st district) Republican
California (7th district) Republican
Iowa (3rd district) Republican
Illinois (12th district) Democrats
Michigan (1st district) Republican

As a bit of a lefty it’s good to see that Obama should win the presidency fairly comfortably, but the predicted loss of so many seats in the House of Reps is a real shame.

Oh well, at least it’ll be kind of fun to see how close I get to the truth. Let’s wait and see …

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